Greggs
Website:
Greggs
Index:
FTSE 250
EPIC: GRG
Supersector:
Retail
Sector:
Food and Drug Retailers
Subsector:
Food Retailers and Wholesalers
Market Cap:
£1.55B
Payout Frequency: Semi-Annual
Greggs Dividend Analysis and Summary
Key dividend details
- Final dividend (FY2025): 50.0p per share (subject to AGM approval).
- Total ordinary dividend (FY2025): 69.0p per share (maintained vs FY2024).
- Ex-dividend date: 30/04/2026 (derived from record date).
- Record date: 01/05/2026.
- Payment date: 29/05/2026.
- Dividend cover (underlying): ~1.8x (Underlying diluted EPS 122.8p vs DPS 69.0p).
- Policy: Maintain ordinary dividend through the current investment phase; target an ordinary dividend covered ~2x by underlying EPS over time; progressive policy aligned to EPS growth.
Analysis: sustainability and growth outlook
- Sustainability: Coverage of ~1.8x on underlying EPS and strong cash generation (diluted operating cash inflow per share 267.1p; net cash from ops after leases £273.7m) support the dividend despite FY2025 profit softness.
- Cash and balance sheet: Year-end net cash £45.8m and £75m undrawn RCF provide liquidity. Capex peaked in 2025 (£287.5m), falls to ~£200m in 2026 and £150–170m from 2027, which should lift free cash flow.
- Growth trajectory: DPS held flat at 69.0p, consistent with guidance to maintain the ordinary dividend during the supply-chain investment peak. With profits guided to be “similar” to 2025 in 2026 and fixed-cost drag from Derby commissioning in H2, near-term DPS growth looks limited. Medium term, lower capex and ROCE recovery (target ~20% from 2028) could enable resumed dividend growth and/or additional cash returns.
- Alignment with capital allocation: Management reiterates willingness to return surplus cash via special dividends or buybacks once cash exceeds needs—credible given the capex step-down and robust operating cash generation.
Factors that could impact future dividends
- Investment phase and ROCE path: Commissioning of new distribution centres (Derby in 2026; Kettering in 2027) raises fixed costs before benefits are fully realised, temporarily pressuring coverage if trading softens.
- Capital allocation framework: Explicit roadmap to lower capex from 2026 and return surplus cash suggests potential for special returns from 2027 onward, subject to trading and balance sheet targets.
- No structural corporate actions announced (no demergers/M&A/share consolidations) that would directly alter dividend mechanics.
Risks and flags to dividend stability
- Operating performance: FY2025 underlying PBT down 9.4%; guidance for 2026 only “similar” to 2025 leaves limited headroom for DPS growth near term.
- Cost environment: Employment costs remain the biggest inflation driver in 2026 (albeit moderating overall input inflation to ~3%); H2 2026 fixed-cost uplift from Derby commissioning could compress cover.
- ROCE and margin: Underlying ROCE fell to 16.0% (from 20.3%); management expects further near-term pressure before improvement from 2027/28—execution risk exists.
- One-off tax item: £4.5m VAT understatement provision in 2025 (self-identified); not material for dividend capacity but a governance flag to monitor.
- Macro/consumer: Demand sensitivity in a value-led, discretionary category; any prolonged consumer weakness could test earnings cover.
- Liquidity/covenants: RCF with covenants acknowledged as a principal risk area; mitigated by strong cash generation and capex flexibility.
Read more
Greggs Annual Dividend Yield - 4.55%
Dividends Used in Calculation:
| Ex-Dividend Date |
Payment Date |
Type |
Amount |
Currency |
| 01/05/2025 |
30/05/2025 |
Final |
50.00p |
GBX |
| 11/09/2025 |
10/10/2025 |
Interim |
19.00p |
GBX |
Total (Annual Dividends Per Share):
69.00p
Dividend Yield =
Annual Dividends Per Share (69.00p)
÷ Share Price (1516.5p)
= 4.55%
Greggs Dividend History
| Ex Dividend Date |
Payment Date |
Type |
Amount |
Currency |
| 30/04/2026 |
29/05/2026 |
Final |
50.0000p |
GBX |
| 11/09/2025 |
10/10/2025 |
Interim |
19.00p |
GBX |
| 01/05/2025 |
30/05/2025 |
Final |
50.00p |
GBX |
| 05/09/2024 |
04/10/2024 |
Interim |
19.00p |
GBX |
| 25/04/2024 |
24/05/2024 |
Special |
40.00p |
GBX |
| 25/04/2024 |
24/05/2024 |
Final |
46.00p |
GBX |
| 07/09/2023 |
06/10/2023 |
Interim |
16.00p |
GBX |
| 27/04/2023 |
26/05/2023 |
Final |
44.00p |
GBX |
| 08/09/2022 |
07/10/2022 |
Interim |
15.00p |
GBX |
| 12/05/2022 |
08/06/2022 |
Final |
42.00p |
GBX |
| 14/04/2022 |
20/05/2022 |
Final |
42.00p |
GBX |
| 24/03/2022 |
29/04/2022 |
Special |
40.00p |
GBX |
| 09/09/2021 |
08/10/2021 |
Interim |
15.00p |
GBX |
| 16/04/2020 |
21/05/2020 |
Final |
33.00p |
GBX |
| 05/09/2019 |
03/10/2019 |
Interim |
11.90p |
GBX |
| 05/09/2019 |
03/10/2019 |
Special |
35.00p |
GBX |
| 25/04/2019 |
30/05/2019 |
Final |
25.00p |
GBX |
| 06/09/2018 |
04/10/2018 |
Interim |
10.70p |
GBX |
| 19/04/2018 |
18/05/2018 |
Final |
22.00p |
GBX |
| 07/09/2017 |
06/10/2017 |
Interim |
10.30p |
GBX |
| 27/04/2017 |
26/05/2017 |
Final |
21.50p |
GBX |
| 08/09/2016 |
07/10/2016 |
Interim |
9.50p |
GBX |
| 21/04/2016 |
20/05/2016 |
Final |
21.20p |
GBX |
| 03/09/2015 |
02/10/2015 |
Interim |
7.40p |
GBX |
| 18/06/2015 |
17/07/2015 |
Special |
20.0p |
GBX |
| 09/04/2015 |
08/05/2015 |
Final |
16.00p |
GBX |
| 03/09/2014 |
03/10/2014 |
Interim |
6.00p |
GBX |
| 09/04/2014 |
09/05/2014 |
Final |
13.50p |
GBX |
| 04/09/2013 |
04/10/2013 |
Interim |
6.00p |
GBX |
| Year |
Interim |
Final |
Special |
Currency |
Total |
Change |
| 2024 |
19.000 |
46.000 |
40.000 |
GBX |
105.000 |
75.000 |
| 2023 |
16.000 |
44.000 |
|
GBX |
60.000 |
-56.830 |
| 2022 |
15.000 |
84.000 |
40.000 |
GBX |
139.000 |
826.660 |
| 2021 |
15.000 |
|
|
GBX |
15.000 |
-54.540 |
| 2020 |
|
33.000 |
|
GBX |
33.000 |
-54.100 |
| 2019 |
11.900 |
25.000 |
35.000 |
GBX |
71.900 |
119.870 |
| 2018 |
10.700 |
22.000 |
|
GBX |
32.700 |
2.830 |
| 2017 |
10.300 |
21.500 |
|
GBX |
31.800 |
3.580 |
| 2016 |
9.500 |
21.200 |
|
GBX |
30.700 |
-29.260 |
| 2015 |
7.400 |
16.000 |
20.000 |
GBX |
43.400 |
122.560 |
| 2014 |
6.000 |
13.500 |
|
GBX |
19.500 |
225.000 |
| 2013 |
6.000 |
|
|
GBX |
6.000 |
|
Greggs Dividend Calculator
Greggs Dividend Growth
| Dividend Growth (1Y) |
–
|
| Dividend CAGR (5Y) |
35.69%
|
| Years of Growth |
–
|
| Payout Ratio |
57.53%
|
| Buyback Yield |
0.07%
|
| Shareholder Yield |
4.4%
|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 13.05 |
|---|
| Forward P/E | 12.55 |
|---|
| P/FCF | 21.54 |
|---|
| Earnings Yield | 7.7% |
|---|
| FCF Yield | 4.64% |
|---|
| ROE | 20.44% |
|---|
| ROCE | 17.11% |
|---|
| Profit Margin | 5.68% |
|---|
| Operating Margin | 9.04% |
|---|
| Gross Margin | 61.46% |
|---|