Ashtead Group

Website: Ashtead Group
Index: FTSE 100
EPIC: AHT
Supersector: Industrial Goods and Services
Sector: Support Services
Subsector: Business Support Services
Market Cap: £19.64B
Payout Frequency: Semi-Annual

Ashtead Group Dividend Analysis and Summary

Key Dividend Terms

Dividend: Interim dividend of 37.5¢ per share (up 4% vs 36.0¢).
Currency: Declared in USD; paid in GBP by default unless shareholders elect USD.
Ex-dividend date: 08/01/2026 (derived from the record date).
Record date: 09/01/2026.
Payment date: 06/02/2026.
Election deadline for USD payment: 23/01/2026.
Policy: Board reiterates a “progressive dividend … sustainable through the cycle.”

Context and Coverage

Free cash flow (H1): $1,109m (vs $420m prior year), after $1,072m capex.
Dividends paid (H1): $307m (final dividend for FY25).
Leverage: Net debt/adjusted EBITDA at 1.6x (ex-IFRS 16), within 1.0–2.0x target.
Guidance reaffirmed: FY25/26 free cash flow $2.2bn–$2.5bn; gross capex $1.8bn–$2.2bn.
Earnings: Adjusted EPS H1 212.1¢; statutory EPS H1 188.1¢.
Additional shareholder returns: $714m buybacks in H1 (current programme expected to complete by end-Feb 2026); new $1.5bn buyback to commence 02/03/2026.

Analysis: Sustainability and Growth

Sustainability: The interim dividend is well covered by strong H1 free cash flow and conservative leverage. H1 dividends of $307m were covered 3.6x by free cash flow, and the reaffirmed $2.2–$2.5bn FCF guidance implies ample headroom for the interim payment and future distributions.
Growth trajectory: A 4% uplift in the interim dividend is consistent with the stated progressive policy. With management prioritising organic growth and bolt-ons ahead of distributions, investors should expect steady, incremental dividend growth rather than outsized hikes, with excess cash directed to buybacks.
Support from performance/capital allocation: Despite modest revenue growth and margin pressure from lower used equipment sales/values and mix, disciplined capex and cost control delivered record H1 free cash flow. The policy hierarchy (growth capex, bolt-ons, progressive dividend, then buybacks) and a new $1.5bn buyback underscore confidence in multi-year cash generation while maintaining leverage mid-range.

Structural and Policy Considerations

Primary listing move to NYSE: On track for March 2026. Management states the capital allocation framework remains unchanged. A US primary listing may, over time, tilt total returns further toward buybacks, but no change to the progressive dividend policy has been signalled.
Share buybacks: Current programme nearing completion; new $1.5bn buyback scheduled from 02/03/2026 to April 2027. Ongoing buybacks reduce share count, supporting per-share dividend affordability.
UK restructuring/disposals: Operational restructure and disposal of UK Hoist (non-recurring costs of $37m recognised). These actions aim to improve efficiency and returns; near-term costs are non-recurring and should not structurally impair dividend capacity.
Bolt-on M&A: Continues in North America and Canada; consistent with strategy and not expected to displace the progressive dividend given cash generation and leverage headroom.

Risks and Flags for Dividend Stability

End-market cyclicality: Moderation in local non-residential construction and absence of storm-related activity can weigh on growth; however, guidance is reaffirmed and leading indicators are cited as positive.
Used equipment pricing: Lower used equipment sales/values reduce gains on sale and can pressure margins; partly offset by cost control and fleet optimisation.
Capex intensity: Sustained $1.8–$2.2bn gross capex supports long-term growth. If demand weakens materially, FCF coverage could tighten, though current guidance suggests adequate buffer.
Currency: Dividend declared in USD; GBP payments expose sterling investors to FX volatility.
Execution: UK restructuring benefits must be delivered to avoid persistent margin drag; large-scale buybacks require continued FCF delivery and stable credit markets.

Dividends Used in Calculation:

Ex-Dividend Date	Payment Date	Type	Amount	Currency
09/01/2025	07/02/2025	Interim	36.00¢	USX
07/08/2025	10/09/2025	Final	72.00¢	USX

Total (Annual Dividends Per Share): 78.47p (Using exchange rate on 29/01/2026 $ = £0.72653)

Dividend Yield = Annual Dividends Per Share (78.47p) ÷ Share Price (4687p) = 1.67%

Ex Dividend Date	Payment Date	Type	Amount	Currency
08/01/2026	06/02/2026	Interim	37.50¢	USX
07/08/2025	10/09/2025	Final	72.00¢	USX
09/01/2025	07/02/2025	Interim	36.00¢	USX
08/08/2024	10/09/2024	Final	89.25¢	USX
11/01/2024	08/02/2024	Interim	15.75¢	USX
10/08/2023	12/09/2023	Final	85.00¢	USX
12/01/2023	09/02/2023	Interim	15.00¢	USX
11/08/2022	09/09/2022	Final	67.50¢	USX
13/01/2022	10/02/2022	Interim	12.50¢	USX
19/08/2021	21/09/2021	Final	35.00¢	USX
14/01/2021	03/02/2021	Interim	7.15¢	USX
13/08/2020	11/09/2020	Final	33.50¢	USX
16/01/2020	05/02/2020	Interim	7.15¢	USX
16/01/2020	05/02/2020	4th Interim	7.15
15/08/2019	13/09/2019	Final	33.50¢	USX
17/01/2019	06/02/2019	Interim	6.50¢	USX
16/08/2018	14/09/2018	Final	27.50¢	USX
18/01/2018	07/02/2018	Interim	5.50¢	USX
17/08/2017	15/09/2017	Final	22.75¢	USX
19/01/2017	08/02/2017	Interim	4.75¢	USX
11/08/2016	09/09/2016	Final	18.50p	GBX
14/01/2016	03/02/2016	Interim	4.00p	GBX
13/08/2015	04/09/2015	Final	12.25p	GBX
15/01/2015	04/02/2015	Interim	3.00p	GBX
13/08/2014	05/09/2014	Final	9.25p	GBX
15/01/2014	05/02/2014	Interim	2.25p	GBX
14/08/2013	06/09/2013	Final	6.00p	GBX
16/01/2013	06/02/2013	Interim	1.50p	GBX

Year	Interim	Final	Currency	Total	Change
2024	15.750	89.250	USX	105.000	5.000
2023	15.000	85.000	USX	100.000	25.000
2022	12.500	67.500	USX	80.000	89.790
2021	7.150	35.000	USX	42.150	-11.820
2020	7.150	33.500		47.800	19.500
2019	6.500	33.500	USX	40.000	21.210
2018	5.500	27.500	USX	33.000	20.000
2017	4.750	22.750	USX	27.500	22.220
2016	4.000	18.500	GBX	22.500	47.540
2015	3.000	12.250	GBX	15.250	32.600
2014	2.250	9.250	GBX	11.500	53.330
2013	1.500	6.000	GBX	7.500

Number of Shares:

Payment	Paid	Amount
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